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Prediction Vaults

Automated Predictions!
Prediction Vaults allows you to deposit funds and in return earns yield by employing an automated prediction strategy that predicts asset ( listed on Nexter) price movements — either up or down (or, in some cases, both!). The inspiration comes from DeFi Option Vaults (DOVs), popularly known to generate yields through option strategies.
However, prediction vaults generate returns through the specific prediction strategy based on TradingView technical indicators. For example, the crypto vault will use a set of technical indicators (discussed below) to predict the prices of crypto (BTC, ETH, and MATIC) listed on Nexter and yield returns on your investment. Initially, we will support crypto and stock (equity) vaults.
The purpose of vaults is to simplify predictions. For example, if 10 users perform 10 transactions per week, totaling 100 txs/week, the vault will replace this activity by performing 10 txs/week for 10 users, saving gas fees for 90 txs. This makes using vaults cheaper and straightforward — deposit, wait for yields, and withdraw.

Features of Prediction Vaults

We were among the first to launch prediction vaults. As a result, we have introduced unique features that define Nexter vaults. You can enjoy all of these features by exploring Nexter.
Here’s what we offer:
  • $MATIC Deposits: Our vaults support direct $MATIC deposits where in return for the deposits users can earn $MATIC rewards. The downside here is that if the vault strategy is unprofitable, you may incur a loss.
  • Smart Vaults: Each vault stores strategy-related data, predicted history, and other information like claimable rounds, claimed rounds, strategy success rate, performance, etc.
  • Performance Metrics: You can track vault performance via graphs provided on each vault. This also provides you an edge in picking the top performing, highly profitable vaults.

Introducing Crypto Vaults

Nexter Vaults
Initially, we’re introducing vaults for crypto assets (MATIC, ETH, and BTC) that contain a set of prediction strategies based on back-tested technical indicators. Crypto vault earns yields on your deposits by running an automated prediction strategy on cryptocurrencies listed on Nexter (MATIC, BTC and ETH). The generated yields are compounded over time.
The vault works as follows:
  1. 1.
    It receives your $MATIC deposits and invests 100% of its balance in its prediction strategy.
  2. 2.
    The vault then algorithmically selects the optimal indicator for the prediction and predicts in the direction with the highest success rate.
  3. 3.
    The vault collects the yield from the predictions and represents it as the yield on this strategy.

Prediction Strategies

This is the crux of our prediction vaults offering. Prediction strategies are TradingView technical indicators that have been back tested on crypto assets. These algorithms are then used to predict asset prices, either up or down (in some cases, both!). This prediction is performed on the Nexter prediction market, which includes a variety of assets and marketplaces.
So far, we’ve back-tested around 25 strategies, six of which produced good performance. As a result, we’ve put them in vaults. These strategies have a primary criterion to be selected as a vault strategy i.e., if the success rate is greater than 51.25%.
For example, imagine the crypto vault runs 100 prediction rounds on Nexter every day for seven days, totaling 700 rounds. If the vault predicts $100 per round, the total prediction by the vault is 700*$100 = $70000. Now, the Nexter prediction protocol fee is 2.5%, which means the vault will pay 2.5% of $70000 = $1750, for 700 predictions.
As previously stated, if the vault success rate is 51.25%, 358.75 rounds out of 700 will be successful, while 341 rounds will fail. Now, imagine if each prediction round earns us $100, the total successful round returns will be 358.75 rounds*$100 = $35,875 and total fail amount will be 341 rounds*$100 = $34,100.
Let us now subtract $35,875 — $34,100 = $1775 net returns, which is greater than the protocol fee ($1750) paid. If the vault has a success rate of more than 51.5%, it will be more profitable. Now, let’s have a look at the six strategies we’ve put in our vaults:

Strategies

We’ve included the best indicator-based strategies into our vaults. Our recommended strategies have consistently delivered high success rates, while others have also offered excellent results. Furthermore, these indicators have been back tested over time on various assets. Here are a few of them that we have in our vaults:
Moving Average Recommendation: Moving Average [R] is our first strategy which is a combination of Moving Averages that has consistently provided a high success rate. We are proposing two types of moving average vaults:
  • Moving Average Crypto Vaults: The Moving Average crypto Vault runs a prediction strategy based on a set of back-tested moving average indicators that are automatically run on crypto listed in Nexter. The strategy predicts crypto outcomes based on crossovers of Moving average indicators on TradingView charts. Moving average is a trend-following or lagging indicator since it is based on historical prices.
  • Moving Average Against Vaults: The Moving Average Against Crypto Vault runs a prediction strategy based on a set of back-tested moving average indicators that are automatically run on crypto listed in Nexter. While the strategy predicts crypto outcomes based on Moving average indicator crossovers on TradingView charts, the calculated outcomes are the inverse of the strategy results.

Vault Deposit & Withdrawal

You can deposit into any vault at any time. All your funds will be added to the vault and will begin to generate yield.
However, you can withdraw the funds only after a 24hr lock-in period. You will receive both your funds as well as the return on investment.

Fees

The vault fee structure comprises a 10% performance fee. If the strategy is profitable, the performance fee is calculated on the profits. However, no fees will be charged if the strategy is unprofitable.

Risks

The primary risk of using vaults is that it may incur a loss in the case of sudden price movement due to unforeseen global events.